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FXUS01 KWBC 010718

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

317 AM EDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 12Z Wed May 01 2024 - 12Z Fri May 03 2024



...Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the

Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley...



...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern

High Plains today...



...Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average temperatures

continue across much of the Central and Eastern U.S....





The month of May kicks off with severe weather and excessive

rainfall threats over the Central U.S.. A developing low pressure

system over the Central High Plains of Colorado will contribute to

the initiation of scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the

Great Plains today. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced

Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of southwest

Kansas into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon into the evening. A

few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds are expected for

the broader Central/Southern Plains region. The surface wave will

lift into the Central Plains this evening and support enhanced

rain rates over parts of northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and

western Iowa, where a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive

Rainfall is in effect. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe)

originating from a dryline in the Southern High Plains will grow

as they propagate into a very moist environment in central and

eastern Texas today. Given the saturated soils from recent heavy

rainfall, a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is

in effect for portions of eastern Texas in between the Dallas and

Houston metros this evening. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms

should wrap up this afternoon across the Carolina/Southeast coast.



Severe storms and excessive rainfall threats shift into the

Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the low pressure system moves

into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will

proliferate across the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi

Valley, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect.

The MCS associated with tonight's excessive rainfall threat will

shift into the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. An upper trough

anchored over the Northwest will support below average

temperatures across the region for the next few days. With cold

air in place, an embedded shortwave impulse will contribute to

high elevation snow across the Cascades and Northern Rockies.

Between 6-12 inches of snow is forecast to accumulate with

isolated higher amounts most likely over northwestern Montana by

Friday morning. Temperatures will remain above average, for the

most part, across the eastern half of the country through Friday

before a cold front moderates things a bit heading into the

weekend.





Kebede





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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