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FXUS01 KWBC 150758

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

358 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024



...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather

and isolated flash flooding to the Plains Monday, followed by the

Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...



...Scattered thunderstorms, including the threat for some severe

weather, from the Upper Ohio Valley east through the Mid-Atlantic

Monday...



...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next

couple of days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades,

northern/central Rockies, and eastern Great Basin...



...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;

Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains

Monday....



A deep, upper-level low and associated low pressure/frontal system

over the West will begin to push into the Plains Monday. The

accompanying height falls will help lead to lee cyclogenesis,

rapidly deepening/organizing the low pressure system over the

central High Plains. Gulf moisture return aided by intensifying

southerly flow will eventually lead to increasing shower and

thunderstorm chances by Monday evening to the northwest of the low

over the central/northern High Plains, along a warm front slowly

lifting northward through the Missouri and Middle Mississippi

Valleys, and southward ahead of a dry line/rapidly approaching

cold front through the central and southern Plains. An Enhanced

Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 3/5) has been issued by the

Storm Prediction Center from the low pressure center in western

Nebraska/South Dakota arcing southward ahead of the approaching

dry line/cold front across portions of the central Plains. Some

more robust, supercell thunderstorms are expected to produce

instances of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southward into the southern

Plains where storm coverage is more uncertain, but any storms that

do develop will still pose the same threat. Additionally, there

will be a conditional threat for some isolated instances of flash

flooding, both along and north of the warm front from the Northern

Plains into the Missouri Valley where widespread, but not quite as

potent storms will exist, and south into portions of the

central/southern Plains where more potent storms will exist, but

drier antecedent conditions will limit the risk.



The storms will progress eastward with the frontal system through

the overnight hours Monday and into the day Tuesday, spreading

into the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Areas

where residual storms from the night before clear, most likely

through the Middle Mississippi Valley southwestward into the

Ark-La-Tex, will see a renewed threat for severe thunderstorms.

Another Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of southern

Iowa, northern Missouri, and western Illinois near the track of

the low pressure center where favorable wind fields will lead to a

locally greater threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and

tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado. A Slight

Risk once again extends further south towards the Ark-La-Tex where

storms will likely be more isolated, but still pose a threat for

all hazards. A broad threat for isolated flash flooding will exist

over the region very similar to Monday, with more widespread

storms to the north and more isolated but potent downpours

possible to the south. 



Further east, another round of storms is expected Monday along and

ahead of a cold front sagging southward through the Upper

Ohio/Tennessee Valleys eastward through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

There is a Slight Risk of severe weather centered around the

Tidewater region of Virginia where enough CAPE for some stronger

updrafts will exist, posing a threat for a few instances of large

hail and damaging winds. In the West, winter-weather related

advisories/warnings are in place for higher elevations of the

mountains of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies where

remaining moisture under the influence of the upper-low is

forecast to lead to snow accumulations of 6-12"+. Another

upper-level wave and accompanying surface frontal system pushing

southeastward through the Cascades Monday and northern Rockies

Tuesday will bring a similar chance for moderate to locally heavy

snowfall for higher mountain elevations. 



Warmer than average temperatures will continue Monday for most

areas of the central/eastern U.S. as upper-level ridging precedes

the system over the West. Highs generally in the 80s are expected

across the central/southern Plains east through the Mississippi

Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. A few 90s will even be

possible over the central/southern High Plains. These hot

temperatures and dry conditions, along with intensifying winds due

to the deepening low pressure system, have prompted a Critical

Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center

Monday. Warm, similarly above average highs are also expected

across the northern tier, with most locations outside of the Upper

Great Lakes/Interior Northeast forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.

Temperatures will slip a few degrees in general Tuesday, but still

remain above average for most locations. Cooler temperatures will

continue Monday across southern portions of the West under the

influence of the upper-low, with 50s and 60s across California and

the Great Basin and 70s in the Desert Southwest. Conditions will

rebound by about 10 degrees on Tuesday as the upper-low moves

eastward over the Plains.



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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