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FXCA20 KWBC 151231

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

831 AM EDT MON APR 15 2024



PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 15/12UTC:

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE

EAST COAST OF THE USA SOUTH INTO HISPANIOLA. THIS IS INTERACTING

WITH A WEAK IN THE EASTERLY TRADES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A

MAXIMA IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...DEEP

CONVECTION IS FLARING UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VI AND NORTHEAST

PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF THE

PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE

CELLS ARE PESTERING THE WESTERN VI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND

NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.



THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THROUGH TUESDAY

EVENING...WHILE MOVING LITTLE. ON WEDNESDAY IT IS FORECAST TO

START MEANDERING EASTWARD WHILE BECOMING BROADER. AS THE SYSTEM

PROGRESSES EASTWARD...HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT ON

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS

WILL YIELD TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION

AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL

LIMIT STABILITY...FAVORING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON

CONVECTION ON DA DAILY BASOS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN

THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...DECREASING

SPEED DURING DIURNAL HEATING HOURS...EXPECT THE LARGEST

ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER GENERALLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA FROM

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.



IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON MONDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN

AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING IN FAR NORTHWEST PUERTO

RICO...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 1-1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED

CONVECTION IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR AND IN THE WESTERN VI

WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECT

MAXIMA OF 1-1.25 INCHES. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON

CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-1.5

INCHES...AND NEAR 2 INCHES LOCALLY. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF

0.6-0.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE DISTRIBUTION IS MUCH

LOWER.



GALVEZ...WPC (USA)





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