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FXCA20 KWBC 161006

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

605 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024



PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 16/12UTC:

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE EXTENDING OFF THE EAST

COAST OF THE USA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAVE/SOUTHEAST CUBA. THIS IS

INTERACTING WITH A MOIST PLUME THAT HAS REACHED PRECIPITABLE WATER

VALUES OVER 50MM...TRIGGERING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF

PUERTO RICO. AS THIS IS FAVORING A LOWERING OF SURFACE

PRESSURES...TRADE WINDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VI ARE FROM THE

EAST SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOST OF THE STRONGEST

CONVECTION FLARING UP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH

A FEW MORNING CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE EVIDENT IN PORTIONG OF THE VI.



ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THIS

IMPLIES THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF

THE ISLANDS...WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR

AND FAVOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO

RICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA NEAR 1 INCH. AFTER THIS PERIOD...THE

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROLL EASTWARD GRADUALLY WHILE BECOMING

BROADER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO

FAVOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.

HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS DECREASE

SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE.

THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK AND ACQUIRE A NORTHEASTERLY

COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY...FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA AND VERY

LIGHT AMOUNTS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS CELLS DISSIPATE. ON

WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA NEAR 1 INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE

CORDILLERA...DECREASING TO MAXIMA NEAR 0.75 INCHES ON THURSDAY.



AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD...WHILE THE

REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. MODELS ARE

STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF THE INCREASE IN AVAILABLE

MOISTURE...BUT THE TREND IS EVIDENT IN SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS.

ACCORDINGLY...WE ARE REFLECTING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS STARTING FRIDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN

THE VI AND MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.8 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND IN

THE CORDILLERA. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.7 INCHES IN THE

NORTHERN VI...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONCENTRATES IN THE

CORDILLERA YIELDING TO POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN

SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.



GALVEZ...WPC (USA)





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