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FXUS01 KWBC 170833

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

432 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024



Valid 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024



...Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Lower Great

Lakes/Ohio Valley Wednesday; threat shifts to the Middle

Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains Thursday...



...Moderate to locally heavy mountain snowfall continues for the

northern Rockies...



...Warm to hot temperatures in the South and Desert Southwest;

chillier weather for the northern Rockies/Plains...



Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue with a low

pressure/frontal system moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio

Valley Wednesday. Some storms are also expected along a warm front

lifting through the Mid-Atlantic. Sufficient shear and buoyancy

will be present from eastern Indiana east through Ohio into far

western Pennsylvania for some more organized clusters/lines of

storms capable of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has

issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of large hail,

damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. An isolated threat for flash

flooding will exist across the region as wet antecedent conditions

could lead to some issues despite rainfall amounts likely not

being particularly high. Storms should taper off over the Great

Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday morning while continuing into the

day for the Mid-Atlantic as the frontal system pushes towards the

East Coast.



Further west, another region of showers and thunderstorms is

expected in vicinity of a trailing cold frontal boundary from the

eastern system and ahead of another cold front pushing

southeastward through the Plains/Mississippi Valley. The first

round of storms is expected late Wednesday and into the early

morning hours Thursday over portions of the central Plains. A

narrow corridor of severe thunderstorms capable of producing some

large hail has been highlighted with a Slight Risk over

northeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri. The cold front

will continue further south and eastward on Thursday with showers

and storms expected from the Middle Mississippi Valley

southwestward through the Mid-South, Ark-La-Tex, and into the

Southern Plains. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be

over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, with a Slight Risk

in place for another threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a

few tornadoes. A second Slight Risk of some large hail and

damaging winds is also in place ahead of the cold front over north

Texas. Some locally heavy downpours may lead to some isolated

instances of flash flooding across the region as well.



Areas of moderate to locally heavy snow will continue for higher

elevations in the northern Rockies Wednesday, tapering off into

the day Thursday. Winter weather-related Warning and Advisories

are in place for total accumulations of 6-12", with locally higher

amounts up to 18" possible, particularly into Wyoming. Otherwise,

the remainder of the country is expected to remain mostly dry.

Temperature-wise, conditions will remain warm to even hot for some

locations across the southern tier of the country. Forecast highs

from the Southern Plains east through the Lower Mississippi Valley

and Southeast will be in the mid- to upper 80s, with some 90s

possible over the Southeast and in Texas. Highs in the Desert

Southwest will be well into the 90s. Conditions will be more

variable from the Central Plains east through the Middle

Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic due to frontal

boundaries passing through the region, with 50s and 60s more

likely further north and 70s and 80s more likely further south. To

the north, cooler temperatures will be in place from the Great

Lakes into New England with highs in the 40s and 50s. The coldest

temperatures over the next couple of days will be in the northern

Rockies/Plains, with highs mainly in the 40s. Forecast highs along

the West Coast range from the 50s and 60s in the Pacific Northwest

to the 70s and 80s in California.



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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