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FXUS01 KWBC 031956

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

356 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 00Z Sat May 04 2024 - 00Z Mon May 06 2024



...Heavy rain, significant flooding, and severe weather concerns

remain across parts of eastern Texas and the southern Plains

through the weekend...



...Heavy mountain snow and gusty winds to enter much of the West,

Great Basin, and Rockies over the next few days...



...Below average temperatures and showers impact the Mid-Atlantic

and Northeast into the end of the weekend...



Slow-moving thunderstorms containing intense rainfall rates are

ongoing this afternoon throughout parts of southeastern Texas just

north of the Houston metro area, which are leading to a continuing

threat of flash flooding. Ongoing significant to catastrophic

flooding throughout parts of eastern Texas from prior heavy rain

will only exacerbate the flash, urban, and river flooding threat

from additional rainfall into this evening. Newly formed

thunderstorms developing off a southern High Plains dryline could

lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding across central Texas

as well tonight, but the main hazard associated with these storms

are forecast to be associated with giant hail, damaging wind

gusts, and a few tornadoes. Farther north, a potent cold front

exiting the central High Plains and progressing into the

mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday is also expected to spark a

line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain

and severe thunderstorms, mainly throughout parts of Kansas and

Nebraska.



By this weekend, the aforementioned cold front is expected to

continue progressing eastward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

The tail end of of this frontal boundary reaching westward to the

southern Plains will be the focus for additional thunderstorm

activity and the potential for flash flooding. A Slight Risk

(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for central and

north-central Texas on Saturday, with the threat area shifting

east on Sunday, extending from eastern Texas to southwest Missouri

and far southeast Kansas. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are

possible, with the greatest risk anticipated on Saturday in the

Permian Basin of West Texas. Several storms may produce large to

giant hail and a couple strong tornadoes.



An anomalously strong upper-level low entering northern California

on Saturday night is forecast to spread moderate to heavy

precipitation and gusty winds into the western U.S. and Great

Basin this weekend. Heavy mountain snow in the Sierra Nevada and

Oregon Cascades is likely to add up to over a foot (mainly above

6000 feet) on Saturday. As the system continues to swing eastward,

gusty southerly winds up to 60 to 80s mph are possible in the

central Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada, where High Wind

Warnings have been issued. The associated precipiation and gusty

winds will shift eastward as the upper-level low crosses the

Intermountain West on Sunday. Residents and visitors through are

advised to check local conditions before traveling, especially

throughout exposed elevated roadways.



Showers are also expected to dampen the first weekend in May

throughout much of the Great Lakes and eastern United States. Most

precipitation should remain scattered, with thunderstorm chances

in the Southeast, Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A backdoor cold

front sinking through the Mid-Atlantic today will allow for

additional shower activity and below average temperatures this

weekend. Highs are only expected to reach the 50s and 60s as cloud

cover and cool air streaming off the Atlantic keep temperatures 10

to 20 degrees below average between the Mid-Atlantic and New

England when compared to climatology for the dates.



Snell





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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