####018004010####
FXUS01 KWBC 180734

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

333 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024



Valid 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 20 2024



...Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Middle

Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys and Southern Plains Thursday...



...Showers, thunderstorms, and cooler weather for much of the

Southern Plains Friday; wintry mix into the central High Plains...



...Unseasonably warm conditions for much of the southern U.S.;

chillier weather expands across the northern Rockies/Plains and

Upper Midwest...



A weakening system over the Northeast will bring some shower

chances to the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday. To

the west, a much broader area of showers and thunderstorms is

expected ahead of a cold front from the Middle Mississippi/Lower

Ohio Valleys southwestward through the Southern Plains. Sufficient

shear and instability will be in place in the Middle

Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys for some organized

thunderstorms/line segments, with the Storm Prediction Center

noting an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. Very large

hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. A

Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southwestward along the front into

Texas, with a more isolated threat for some large hail and

damaging winds. The prospect of widespread storm coverage,

especially for areas further north through the Middle Mississippi

Valley, and the potential for heavy downpours may lead to some

isolated flash flooding as well.



Shower and thunderstorm chances will progress eastward with the

advancing cold front into the Appalachians by Friday morning and

eventually the East Coast by Friday evening, though coverage and

intensity looks to trend downward during the day as the front

approaches the coast. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may

occur over the Southeast. Areas of moderate to rainfall will

linger over portions of the Southern Plains along and north of the

cold front over Texas as it begins to slow and stall over the

region. Some isolated flooding will be possible. Post-frontal

upslope flow will also bring precipiation chances to the central

High Plains and Front Range of the Rockies, with a mix of rain and

snow showers for lower elevations and snow into the mountains. Any

accumulations at the lower elevations should remain minimal.



Forecast high temperatures remain rather warm to even hot across

southern portions of the country Thursday, with highs in the

mid-80s to near 90 from Texas eastward through the Southeast, and

even as far north as portions of the Middle Mississippi and Lower

Ohio Valleys. Areas of west Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley

will see mid- to upper 90s. Conditions will be similarly hot in

the Desert Southwest. The southerly progression of the cold front

will bring much cooler temperatures Friday across northern Texas

and into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley as highs drop into the

60s and 70s. Conditions will remain hot south of the frontal

boundary.  Further north, highs will range in the 50s and 60s

across the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes

region, with 60s and 70s from the Ohio Valley into the southern

Mid-Atlantic. The northern Mid-Atlantic into New England will be a

bit chilly Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s, with

temperatures expected to recover a bit Friday. Cold temperatures

will also expand in coverage across the northern Rockies/Plains

and Upper Midwest as high pressure settles in over the region,

with highs in the 30s and 40s. In the West, highs will range from

the 60s and 70s from the Pacific Northwest southward through

coastal California and inland across the Great Basin, with 80s for

the central California valleys.



Putnam



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$