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FXUS21 KWNC 281815

PMDTHR

US Hazards Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EDT March 28 2024



SYNOPSIS: An area of departing surface low pressure across the northeastern 

contiguous U.S. (CONUS) may bring periods of high winds to portions of the 

Northeast at the start of the week-2 period. Meanwhile, a digging trough and 

associated lee-side cyclogenesis will bring multiple chances for heavy snow to 

parts of the northern and central Plains and Rocky Mountains. More broadly, 

periods of high winds may occur in conjunction with the robust trough and a 

series of surface lows across the West. In the Southeast, return flow off the 

Gulf of Mexico and frontal systems extending from multiple areas of 

low-pressure across the Plains brings chances for heavy precipitation to 

portions of the southeastern CONUS by the middle and end of the period.



HAZARDS



Slight risk of high winds for parts of the Northeast, Fri,  Apr 5.



Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Northern and Central Plains and 

the Central and Southern Rocky Mountains, Fri-Tue, Apr 5-9.



Slight risk of episodic high winds for the Great Plains and Interior West, 

Fri-Tue, Apr 5-9.



Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Middle and 

Lower-Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio River Valleys, Southern Plains, and 

Southeast, Sun-Thu, Apr 7-11.











DETAILED SUMMARY



FOR SUNDAY MARCH 31 - THURSDAY APRIL 04: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



FOR FRIDAY APRIL 05 - THURSDAY APRIL 11: Mid-level troughing and associated 

surface low-pressure will be progressing east off of the Northeast at the end 

of week-1. Models are in fair agreement with this system bringing chances for 

high winds to portions of the Northeast at the very beginning of week-2. The 

GEFS and ECENS have many members forecasting the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) 

to fall towards 990mb. Therefore, a slight risk of high winds is posted for Apr 

5. However, much of this system is forecast to be east of the US by the start 

of week-2 and the associated snow hazard forecast yesterday has been 

discontinued. 







Across the interior West, an area of negative mid-level height anomalies is 

forecast to develop and persist for much of the week-2 period. This is likely 

to bring generally unsettled weather to much of the western and central 

contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the period. As the trough digs into the West 

early in the period, the ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) shows at least 

a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph (25 mph, 

locally) across the highlighted risk area. The GEFS PET indicates these 

thresholds for the Southwest into the Central Plains. Lee-side cyclogenesis is 

also likely to support increased chances for high winds further into the 

Central and Northern Plains during much of the period. Finally, the National 

Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) indicates low to moderate fire potential across 

parts of the eastern Four Corners region and Central and Southern Plains by the 

end of week-1. Little to no precipitation anticipated during week-1 combined 

with increased high wind risk during week-2 may support enhanced wildfire risk 

in these regions. Therefore, a slight risk of episodic high winds is posted for 

the Great Plains, Interior West, and Southwest, Apr 5-9. By the end of the 

period the mid-level trough is likely to be moving east and weakly above-normal 

500-hPa heights are forecast reducing the chances for high winds across the 

region.







The digging mid-level trough and cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies 

increases chances for heavy snow across portions of the Plains and Rockies. The 

GEFS Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) PET indicates chances for SWE to exceed the 

85th climatological percentile across portions of the Plains. Meanwhile, the 

ECENS PET indicates precipitation to exceed the 85th percentile across a broad 

area in the north-central CONUS. Correspondingly, the raw ECENS indicates 

30-40% chances for snow to exceed four inches across this region during the 

early to middle of the period. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted 

for the Central Rockies and Northern and Central Plains for April 5-9.







Return flow off the Gulf of Mexico may develop by the middle through the end of 

week-2. The associated frontal systems from the lee cyclogenesis discussed 

above may help to initiate chances for heavy precipitation in parts of the 

southeastern CONUS. The ECENS and GEFS PETs develop over 20% chances for 3 day 

precipitation amounts to exceed the 85th percentile and 1 inch across a wide 

area in the southeastern CONUS. There is also broad support from the raw tools 

as well for this region with 3 day precipitation amounts from the raw ECENS 

indicating greater than a 40% chance of exceeding 1 inch. Therefore, a slight 

risk of heavy precipitation is posted for this region for Apr 7-11. 







For Alaska, the mean mid-level pattern is forecast to be fairly zonal, with 

potentially positive 500 hPa height departures across the southern half of the 

state. There is multi-model depiction of a series of surface lows forming over 

the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, although these are not expected to lead to 

widespread hazardous conditions.



FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 



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