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FXUS01 KWBC 042024

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 PM EDT Sat May 04 2024



Valid 00Z Sun May 05 2024 - 00Z Tue May 07 2024



...A deep upper low will bring heavy mountain snow and windy

conditions across a large portion of the western U.S. through the

next couple of days...



...A slight chance of severe thunderstorms across Texas and upper

Midwest into Sunday will shift into the central Plains by later on

Monday...



...Critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies...



A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low currently approaching

the West Coast will result in the next wave of active and stormy

weather to quickly sweep through the western U.S. and into the

Great Plains during the next couple of days.  Moderate to heavy

rain and high-elevation heavy wet snow are already reaching into

the West Coast in earnest, especially across central to northern

California.  The precipitation will expand quickly inland across

the Great Basin and a good portion of the Pacific Northwest

through tonight, reaching into the northern Rockies on Sunday,

followed by the central Rockies on Monday.  This system will bring

quite a bit of winds, especially across southern California and

Nevada through tonight, from the Four Corners region to Wyoming on

Sunday before overspreading much of the High Plains on Monday. 

Two feet or more of heavy wet snow is expected to accumulate along

the Cascades in Oregon, with a foot along the Sierra Nevada, and a

foot or more for portions of the northern Cascades, Great Basin,

as well as northern and central Rockies through Monday.  In

addition, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the

central Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold front. 

Meanwhile, the center of an elongated deep low pressure system is

forecast to track across the northern Plains with wind-swept rain

impacting the northern High Plains on Monday.



Meanwhile, across the eastern two-thirds of the country, the most

active weather will be found over Texas where strong to severe

thunderstorms can be expected through tonight as an upper-level

disturbance arriving from northern Mexico begins to interact with

a stationary front.  Additional energy setting up by the upper

trough is expected to trigger another round of strong to severe

thunderstorms across central Texas to Oklahoma on Sunday, before

the potent cold front associated with the intensifying elongated

low shifts the focus of severe thunderstorms farther north across

the central Plains later on Monday.



Still farther east, some showers and possibly severe thunderstorms

are forecast across the Midwest to upper Mississippi Valley

through tonight near and ahead of a low pressure wave developing

along a cold front.  This system will advance eastward and

gradually merge with the large area of scattered rain and embedded

thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. in association with a

back-door cold front.  These rain/showers will spread farther

northeast into New England on Sunday, and become more widely

scattered on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Mid-South will see a higher

chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday.



The Mid-Atlantic northern and central Plains will be cool in

contrast with warm conditions over the High Plains and Ohio

Valley.  Meanwhile, much cooler weather will surge into and

penetrate the western U.S. with the arrival of the deep and

vigorous upper trough along with windy and inclement weather

closer to the elongated low pressure system.



Kong





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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