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FXUS01 KWBC 201925

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

324 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024



Valid 00Z Sun Apr 21 2024 - 00Z Tue Apr 23 2024



..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...



...Light snow over parts of the Cascades on Saturday night into

Sunday...



...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Mid-Atlantic,

Southeast to the Southern Plains...



A front extending from the Southeast westward to the Western Gulf

Coast will slowly move southward of the Florida Peninsula by

Monday evening. Showers with strong to severe thunderstorms will

develop along the boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a

Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent

lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal

threat of tornadoes.



Additionally, a second area of showers with strong to severe

thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains.

Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of

severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through

Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms

are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and

a few tornadoes.



The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over

parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore,

the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall

with these thunderstorms through Sunday morning. The associated

heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,

with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the

most vulnerable.



On Sunday, the strong to severe thunderstorm threat and the

excessive rainfall threat have come to an end. However, showers

and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast to the

Central Gulf Coast.



Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest/Northern

Intermountain Region will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi

Valley to the Central Plains and then to the Great Basin by Monday

evening. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific

Northwest Coast through Sunday evening. Furthermore, overnight

Saturday, light snow will develop over the Cascades and parts of

the Northern Intermountain Region by early Sunday morning, ending

overnight Sunday.



On Monday, as the boundary moves onto the Plains, a weak plum of

moisture flows from the Western Gulf of Mexico to the Upper

Midwest, aiding in the development of rain over parts of the

Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, a

front moving across Florida will produce showers with strong to

severe thunderstorms.





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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