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FXCA20 KWBC 061846

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

246 PM EDT MON MAY 06 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 06 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC:



ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS WITH AN

ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAINFALL TODAY INTO MIDWEEK. THE AVAILABLE

MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND

NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK...WHILE

THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL

MOISTURE TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL DRY BY WEDNESDAY. THE AREAS

WITH PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE AREAS WITH THE

BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH

AMERICA...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BY CONVECTION ALONG THE

ITCZ/NET...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW EASTERLY WAVES THAT WILL

PLAY A ROLE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.



IN THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N FROM THE

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CUBA AND

TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS...POSSIBLY DISSIPATING BY

THURSDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC

WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DOMINATING

THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS

MEANS THAT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE

CENTRAL TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE

WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ACROSS THE

GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A SFC LOW MOVING EAST

ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S. BUT OVERALL...THE WINDS

WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE

GULF...THOUGH BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY INTO

THURSDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH

AMERICA...MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL

PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PLAY A ROLE

ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS

NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA.



THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED WITH A RIDGE ACROSS

MEXICO...WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE

NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS STRONG RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER

LEVELS...COMBINED WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL

CAUSE MOST OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO OBSERVE

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH RAIN OVER

10MM COULD BE OBSERVED...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. THE MID

LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED IN

THE CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN

LEEWARDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT

MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MID ANS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH

ITS AXIS CURRENTLY OVER CUBA...BUT IS MOVING EAST AND ITS AXIS

WILL BE OVER HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE

A WEAK WESTERLY JET IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WHICH WILL CAUSE

SOME VENTILATION AND MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE GREATER

ANTILLES. THIS SETUP COULD CAUSE RAINFALL MAXIMA ACROSS THE

GREATER ANTILLES WHICH COULD SURPASS 25MM EACH DAY...WITH A

MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PR ON TUESDAY.



NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR

TO BE TOO CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SOME AREAS

OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AS EASTERLY WAVES MOVE

THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL 

OCCUR ALONG THE ITCZ/NET. MAX DAILY TOTALS OF AROUND 30-70MM CAN

BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL AND NORTHWESTERN

COLOMBIA TODAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS

A TINY BIT DRIER...WITH MAX TOTALS UP TO 45MM BEING FORECAST.

HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE

SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA COULD CAUSE PERSISTENT

SHOWER ACTIVITY...CAUSING MAX RAIN TOTALS TO 70MM.





ALAMO...WPC (USA)

















































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