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FXUS01 KWBC 010801

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

401 AM EDT Mon Apr 01 2024



Valid 12Z Mon Apr 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 03 2024



...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys on

Monday and over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday...



...There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of over

parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Monday and

over Eastern Ohio, Tennessee Valleys and Central Appalachians on

Tuesday...



...Snow winds down over parts of the higher elevations of Wyoming,

Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona on Monday; light to moderate

snow over the northern half of the L.P. of Michigan on Tuesday...



A stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central

Plains will be quasi-stationary through Tuesday morning. From the

low on the western end of the stationary front, a cold front

extends from the Central Plains to the Southern High Plains that

will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes, the Appalachians, and

the Eastern Gulf Coast by Wednesday. Moisture from the Western

Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary, creating showers and

severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley

and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an

Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Middle Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Plains through

Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms

are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and

a few tornadoes. Besides, there is an increased threat of EF2 to

EF5 tornados over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle

Mississippi Valley. In addition, there is an increased threat of

hail two inches or greater in size over parts of the

Central/Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Farther east

along the boundary, showers and thunderstorms will develop over

parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Monday.



Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain

over parts of the Middle Mississippi to the Central Appalachians.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of

excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio

Valleys, and Central Appalachians through Tuesday morning. The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most

vulnerable. Likewise, showers and thunderstorms will extend into

the Central Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic on Monday.



On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves to parts of

the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an

Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent

lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few

tornadoes.



Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain

over parts of Eastern Ohio, Tennessee Valleys, and Central

Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level

2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Eastern Ohio, Tennessee

Valleys, and Central Appalachians from Tuesday through Wednesday

morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized

areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small

streams the most vulnerable.



Meanwhile, on Monday, under the deep upper-level trough over the

western third of the country, the snow over the higher elevations

of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona will start to wind

down. Also, the rain at lower elevations over Utah, Arizona, and

New Mexico will come to an end by Tuesday morning. Additionally,

light to moderate snow will develop over parts of the

Northern/Central Plains on Monday and end overnight on Monday.



On Tuesday, the low pressure associated with the storm over the

Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday will move into the Great Lakes

by Wednesday morning. The counter-clockwise flow around the low

will create snow over parts of the U.P. of Michigan, Wisconsin,

and the northern half of the L.P. of Michigan from Tuesday

afternoon into Wednesday. Further, rain and snow will move into

parts of New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The

heaviest snow will be over the northern half of the L.P. of

Michigan.





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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