####018005029#### FXCA20 KWBC 011919 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 318 PM EDT MON APR 01 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 01 APR 2024 AT 1915 UTC: ON MONDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF OAXACA...AND EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO SINALOA....AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND FAVORING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST MEXICO ON MONDAY. WEST CHIHUAHUA AND EAST SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. WEST SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING OVER TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SONORA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER LOUISIANA...THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ ON TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BECOMING STATIONARY IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/EAST OAXACA/WEST CHIAPAS...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUEBLA/NORTH OAXACA...AND BELIZE/CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM. IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENT MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE WEST CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING PANAMA ON MONDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOIST PLUMES FROM DISSIPATED FRONTS ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE TRADES AND WILL BE FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PARTICULARLY...NICARAGUA...THE LESSER ANTILLES....HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO/VI. ON MONDAY...FROM BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED MAXIMA REMAINING BELOW 15MM. IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER LEVEL IS SEEING FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OVER COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO PANAMA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND POSITION ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY...AND OVER VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH IN WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PASSING OF AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...EAST COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A MOIST PLUME REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF VENEZUELA....WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. INCREASED HUMIDITY ALONG THE ANDES REGION IN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN WEST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN BRASIL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE DEFINITION OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST...IT WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WESTERN ECUADOR WILL SEE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE REMNANTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...TO NORTHERN PERU...AND NORTHERN ECUADOR EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHWEST ECUADOR WILL SEE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC TYPE SOF INIT ACOSTA...WPC (USA) $$