####018004618####
FXUS01 KWBC 020801

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

401 AM EDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024



...Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley

on Tuesday and Wednesday; Heavy snow over Upstate New York and

Northern New England on Wednesday...



...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Ohio Valleys on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk over

parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Florida peninsula on Wednesday...



...There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central

Appalachians on Tuesday...



A deep storm over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will

move to Southern New England by Thursday. The system will produce

a large, long-duration winter storm, producing gusty winds and

late-season heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the

Northeast from Tuesday into Friday. The Upper Great Lakes are

forecast to receive heavy snow. Heavy snow will have a 60 to 70

percent likelihood of developing over Wisconsin by Tuesday evening

and expanding into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan overnight

Tuesday. Snow will continue over much of the region through

Wednesday, with additional heavy snow across the Upper Peninsula

of Michigan, before ending on Thursday.



The same storm will produce Northeast snow and wind

Wednesday-Friday. Secondary low-pressure development along the

Mid-Atlantic coast will have a 60 to 70 percent likelihood of

bringing heavy, wet snow and some sleet to the Northeast Wednesday

afternoon through Friday. Significant snow accumulations are

likely over Upstate New York and Northern New England. The system

will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind, and the

combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will create a 60

to 70 percent likelihood of hazardous travel due to low visibility

and snow-covered roads. The wet snow and high snow load may also

damage trees and impact infrastructure.



Moreover, along the associated front extending from the

Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys, showers and

severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee

Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5)

of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley through

Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms

are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and

a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased threat of EF2

†EF5 tornados over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower

Mississippi Valleys. Additionally, there is an increased threat of

severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts

of the Ohio Valley and a small portion of the Tennessee Valley.

Further, there is an increased threat of two-inch or greater hail

over parts of the Ohio Valley.



The storms will also produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has

issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts

of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central

Appalachians through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain

will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban

areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.



Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over two areas as

the front moves across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the

Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)

of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and a

second area over the Florida peninsula from Wednesday into

Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms

are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and

a few tornadoes.



However, the threat of excessive rainfall will be limited to a

Marginal Risk over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New

England from Wednesday through Thursday morning.



Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over

the Pacific Northwest by late Tuesday afternoon and move eastward

to the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and Southern California

by Thursday. The system will create coastal rain and

higher-elevation snow moving inland to the Northern Intermountain

Region, Great Basin, and Northern California overnight Wednesday

into Thursday.





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$