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FXCA20 KWBC 241910

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

310 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 24 APR 2024 AT 1900 UTC: AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE

FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA AND IS BECOMING STATIONARY. BY WEDNESDAY

EVENING EXPECT THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO

CENTRAL CUBA...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING. BY THEN...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START ADVANCING AS A

COLD FRONT AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXITING

THE EAST COAST OF THE US. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS SYSTEM...BUT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS

FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO REGIONS TO THE

NORTHWEST...TO POTENTIALLY REFORM BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RESTARTS

PROPAGATION. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL FAVOR LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF

THE SHEAR LINE...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED IN

PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ORGANIZING

INSIDE THIS AIR MASS...AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HIGHLIGHTING

CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MOST

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE IS EXPECTED

TO CLUSTER IN HISPANIOLA IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON/EVENING

THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTERACT WITH

UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND

ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. EXPECT A PEAK ON THURSDAY...WHEN

AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 25-50MM/DAY RANGE WITH POTENTIAL

ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ON FRIDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER

MOIST PLUME FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF40-80MM.



THE FRONT/FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST

TO MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER ON WEDNESDAY...TO THEN MOVE

INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE LOSING DEFINITION DURING THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS...LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT

ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA

GENERALLY UNDER THE 15MM/DAY RANGE.



ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A TROUGH IS

ORGANIZING IN/WESTERN COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY

MEANDER WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A MOIST PLUME. THIS WILL CONTONUE

TO YIELD TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF

PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT

15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA/EJE

CAFETERO INTO CENTRAL PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF

40-40MM MOSTLY IN CENTRAL PANAMA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE FOCUS OF

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...WHERE

EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALSO IN THE REGION...FAVORABLE UPPER

DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN ECUADOR/SOUTHERN

COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY DIURNAL

CONVECTION. EXPECT AN INCREASE ON THURSDAY...TO 15-20MM/DAY AND

MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.



AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS EQUATORIAL PORTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA. AS THIS WAVE ARRIVES INTO COLOMBIA...IT WILL FAVOR

ONSHORE FLOW IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AS PRECIPITABLE

WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 60MM...EXPECT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF

PRODUCING MAXIMA OF 75-125MM AND WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION.



GALVEZ/CLARKE/LEDESMA...WPC (USA)





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