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FXCA20 KWBC 031813

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

213 PM EDT WED APR 03 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 03 APR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO AND PORTIONS

OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...A CONVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO IS

FORECAST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED IN THE PULSE IS A

TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

FAVOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON

WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH AND CENTRAL

PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE REGION. TO

THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE

GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO CHIAPAS...AND

ALONG VERACRUZ. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC

INTERACTIONS IN CHIAPAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE WILL

FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. ALONG THE

SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...QUINTANA ROO..WEST CUBA...AND

NORTHERN BAHAMAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT

IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...YUCATAN

PENINSULA...AND WHERE IT REMAINS STATIONARY IN CHIAPAS...AND THE

SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FAVOR

MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION.

MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WEST

CUBA...AND FROM EXTREME EAST CHIAPAS TO EL SALVADOR/SOUTH

HONDURAS. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO WEST CUBA...EXTENDING INTO

SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE

NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM FROM

SOUTHERN BELIZE...TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND WEST HONDURAS.

MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN

GUATEMALA...AND CENTRAL CUBA. OF NOTE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO WEST SONORA AND BAJA

CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW

15MM...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT SNOW/RAIN MIX.



IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH

AMERICA...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE IN

THE TRADE WINDS IS ADVECTING FROM THE WEST INTO

VENEZUELA...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND ECUADOR

FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE WILL BE

ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL

PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WEST

COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM EAST COLOMBIA...INTO

ECUADOR...NORTH PERU AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-35MM. MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ARE EXPECTED FROM FRENCH GUIANA INTO

AMAPA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. PORTIONS OF COSTA

RICA/PANAMA...AND FROM RORAIMA...TO WEST PARA...EXPECT GENERALIZED

MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER

COLOMBIA...AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER

LEVELS HIGHER THAN 55MM ARE EXPECTED. THEY COULD SEE MAXIMA OF

30-60MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER

GUYANA COULD FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION

EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN

INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IN SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST

COLOMBIA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MOST

FAVORABLE ON THIS DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED

60MM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES

CROSSING OVER THE EAST COLOMBIA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL ON FRIDAY

CAN FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH RISK OF

MCS FORMATION. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WEST COLOMBIA...IS

ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF OVER 50MM.

WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE FROM

NICARAGUA...TO PANAMA...AND THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA CAN

EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ECUADOR...AND PARA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR

AMOUNTS.



POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC

TYPE SOF INIT



ACOSTA...WPC (USA)

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