####018011509#### FXUS06 KWBC 031902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed April 03 2024 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2024 Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend features a ridge over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), while a mid-level trough is forecast over the south-central CONUS. Above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over much of the CONUS except for the southwestern CONUS, where weak negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast. An anomalous mid-level trough is forecast over Alaska. Below-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies and mid-level troughing over the south-central CONUS favor below-normal temperatures for parts of New Mexico and western Texas. Enhanced chances for near- to above-normal temperatures are predicted over the remainder of CONUS, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Near- to below-normal temperatures are likely over Alaska due to below-normal 500-hPa heights and a trough predicted over the state. Below-normal temperature probabilities are favored across Hawaii underneath weak troughing and negative height anomalies. Drier than normal weather is favored over much of the western CONUS extending eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley, as a mid-level ridge builds in early in the period. In contrast, near- to above-normal precipitation probabilities are increased over the remainder of the CONUS due to southerly return flow associated with mean surface high pressure over the Southeast and the mid-level trough expected to linger in the region through much of the period, and supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. For Alaska, more storminess than normal and above-normal precipitation are favored over the eastern parts of the state due to a predicted trough, while below-normal precipitation is forecast over the western state, and supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Below-normal precipitation chances are increased across Hawaii, consistent with the Hawaii CON. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2024 Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. The week-2 500-hPa height forecast is expected to remain slowly progressive overall, with some features stagnating for a few days before moving downstream and weakening. The GEFS and ECMWF are in good agreement regarding a ridge over the western CONUS during the week-2 period. Above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over much of the CONUS. Weak anomalous troughing is forecast over southern Alaska. A weak trough with slightly below-normal 500-hPa heights are still predicted over Hawaii. Slightly below-normal temperatures are favored over parts of southern Texas. Above-normal temperatures are favored over the remainder of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities exceeding 70 percent over parts of southeastern Oregon, northeastern Nevada, southwestern Idaho, and western Utah, due to the above-normal 500-hPa height. Below-normal temperatures are forecast across portions of southwestern Alaska, while above-normal temperatures are likely over eastern Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are likely over Hawaii due to the below-normal 500-hPa heights, and supported by the consolidation temperature forecast tool. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are favored over Washington, Oregon, northern California, south-central and eastern CONUS, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF precipitation reforecast consolidation tools. Near- to below-normal precipitation is forecast over the remainder of the CONUS, under ridging and above-normal 500-hPa heights. Troughing over southern Alaska favors enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation over the southeastern portions of the state, while below-normal precipitation is forecast over parts of western Mainland Alaska. Below-normal precipitation probabilities are slightly elevated across Hawaii, consistent with the consolidation precipitation forecast tool. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20060319 - 20010317 - 19860413 - 20090403 - 19780410 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20010317 - 19790411 - 20060320 - 20080411 - 19990412 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 09 - 13 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 11 - 17 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$