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FXCA20 KWBC 051742

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

141 PM EDT FRI APR 05 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 05 APR 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EXTENDS INTO MEXICO

AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS

LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE

CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IN THE

MID LEVELS...A SIMILAR RIDGE PATTERN IS LOCATED OVER THE

REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS FROM

THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO...AND

EAST INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES...INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ON

FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL

SYSTEMS IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO CENTRAL

CUBA...AND ENTERS BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND CHIAPAS. A

PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPED OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST

CUBA...AND JAMAICA. IN TERMS OF

PRECIPITATION...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF EL

SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE

BAHAMAS..CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW

10MM. IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER

DUE AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM EAST

NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE

FRONT ADVANCES INTO TURKS AND CAICOS...AND INTO EASTERN

CUBA...WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION BEGINS JUST SOUTH OF THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REMAINS FROM BELIZE TO EASTERN CHIAPAS. THE

PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHEAST

OF JAMAICA. INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST

WITH THE SHEAR LINE...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF

15-25MM...WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS POSSIBLE. DUE TO FAVORABLE

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA AND

HONDURAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST

FOR SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS. EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND

BELIZE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. FROM SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA TO

COSTA RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE

REGION...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY

PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINS TO LOSE

DEFINITION...WHILE IT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER EAST CUBA. THE

PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER

HISPANIOLA...WHILE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 50MM.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HAITI AND JAMAICA

CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM...IN ASSOCIATION TO THE SHEAR LINE. THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN BELIZE...WHILE

EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA

RICA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED...WHILE OAXACA/SOUTHERN

VERACRUZ...SOUTH GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR... AND PUERTO RICO CAN

EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.



IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN

COLOMBIA...ECUADOR ...NORTH PERU...AND NORTHERN BRASIL. LOW LEVEL

TROUGHS THAT ARE ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE

WATER INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ/NET WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION

OVER NORTHERN BRASIL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA

OF 50-100MM WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS

ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WESTERN

PARA...IN ADDITION TO NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A

TROUGH OVER EXTREME WEST COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...FAVORING MAXIMA OF

20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER

THE REGION. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES TO THE WEST

INTO COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...WHERE THE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH RISK

OF MCS FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND INTO

AMAZONAS-BRASIL. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST COLOMBIA

CONTINUES AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN NORTHERN BRASIL. OTHER PORTIONS OF

COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR AND PERU EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF

15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA

AND ECUADOR...AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATED TO A

LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMA OF

50-100MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST

ECUADOR. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA. SIMILAR

AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO NORTH PERU.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE

ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM THE

GUIANAS INTO NORTHERN BRASIL AND VENEZUELA.



POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC

TYPE SOF INIT



ACOSTA...WPC (USA)

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