####018006026#### FXUS06 KWBC 071902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussions for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. NWS Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sun April 07 2024 There is no forecaster message written on weekends. Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20060318 - 19790416 - 19860412 - 20010402 - 19870318 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20060318 - 20010402 - 19860412 - 19790416 - 19950324 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 13 - 17, 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 15 - 21, 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS NFDPMDMRD. $$ ####018007395#### FXUS01 KWBC 071904 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Apr 08 2024 - 00Z Wed Apr 10 2024 ...Multi-day flash flooding and severe weather threat across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday-Tuesday... ...Best chances for clear viewing of Monday's total eclipse across the path of totality expected in northern New England, clearer skies possible but more uncertain from Arkansas northeast to Indiana... ...Lingering snow showers over the Northern High Plains will taper off into Monday with scattered rain showers expected over the Upper Midwest... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk continues over portions of the Southern High Plains Monday... While tomorrow's total eclipse will be occupying a lot of attention, areas of active weather will also be present, including in the path of totality. An upper-level low/accompanying surface frontal system over the central U.S. Sunday evening will continue to progress eastward during the day on Monday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as some rain showers to the Upper-Midwest and a wintry mix in the Northern Plains. To the south, moist Gulf return flow over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley along and ahead of a lingering frontal boundary will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the day. The presence of moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep layer shear is expected to lead to several more robust, severe thunderstorms, with an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over northwest Texas where the greatest potential for instances of large to very large hail exists. A broader Slight Risk is in place across portions over central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east into the ArkLaTex where some large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes can be expected. Additionally, as thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage Monday evening into Monday night across the ArkLaTex, heavy downpours are expected to lead to locally heavy rainfall totals and a few instances of flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. To the north, some light to moderate rain showers will continue in the Upper Midwest in the vicinity of the surface cyclone and under the influence of the upper-low. A transition into a wintry mix/snow showers to the west will also continue over portions of the Northern High Plains after a very windy and snowy Sunday. A few inches of additional snow will be possible into Monday morning, before conditions improve into the day as the system weakens. Some additional showers and storms will be possible through early Monday arcing south from the Lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and then west into the Tennessee Valley, though these should taper off into the day as well. As far as eclipse viewing in the path of totality, sky cover forecasts continue to show that the most likely locations to see clearer skies are in northern New England. Clearer skies may also be possible from Arkansas northeast through central Indiana, however there is more uncertainty due to the potential for some higher clouds. Unfortunately, conditions look cloudier over Texas and from Ohio northeast through northwest Pennsylvania and New York. However, the timing, location, and height of potential cloud cover during the eclipse even in these areas may change or could work favorably and not impede viewing as much as expected. Heading into Tuesday, additional shortwave energy wrapping around the upper-low as well as a second upper-level system approaching the Southern Plains from the west will help to reinvigorate the surface frontal system, reinforcing a frontal boundary from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Another day of enhancing southerly moist Gulf flow will help to continue shower and thunderstorm chances along and ahead of the quasi-stationary boundary. The combination of additional moisture as well as better upper-level support with the approaching system from the west will lead to areas of potentially significant heavy rainfall. Forecast areal average rainfall is over 3 inches from northeastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and northwestern Mississippi late Monday into the day Tuesday, with locally heavier totals of 4-6 inches possible. This rainfall on top of increasingly wet antecedent conditions has prompted a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) for the threat of scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. A broader slight risk exists from north Texas east into the Lower Mississippi Valley where additional locally heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding will also be possible. Unfortunately, the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will likely continue into the day Wednesday eastward into the Southeastern U.S., just beyond the current forecast period. Another round of severe thunderstorms is also expected in the region, with a Slight Risk of severe weather stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley further westward into northwest and central Texas. Both individual and clusters of more vigorous thunderstorms may lead to more instances of large hail and damaging winds, with some tornado potential most likely from southeast Texas into western Louisiana. Elsewhere, dry, windy conditions are expected to continue west of the storms across the Southern High Plains, prompting another Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction center, with conditions expected to gradually improve Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread further to the northeast ahead of the cold front into the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic during the day Tuesday. A frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation mountain snow to the Cascades by Monday evening, with snow chances spreading into portions of the northern Rockies Tuesday. Forecast high temperatures will tend to be at or above average and mild to warm over much of the central/eastern U.S. Monday ahead of the system over the Midwest/Plains. The greatest anomalies will be in the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, where temperatures into the 60s and 70s are upwards of 15-20 degrees above normal. The frontal boundary sagging southward and increasing coverage of precipitation chances will bring cooler temperatures from the Tennessee Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into portions of the Southern Plains/Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to warm up by 10-15 degrees over the Northern Plains Tuesday following one more chilly day on Monday. An expanding area of warm, above average temperatures will spread inland from California into the Great Basin Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds in. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$