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FXUS01 KWBC 080827

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 AM EDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024



...Northern New England remains the best location for clear

viewing of the total solar eclipse this afternoon...



...Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains expected to taper

off later today while locally moderate rain moves across the Upper

Midwest...



...Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat emerging

across the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley on

Tuesday...



...Critical fire danger shifts southward into western Texas by

Tuesday...



As the long-anticipated total solar eclipse scheduled to take

place this afternoon, the weather pattern across the U.S. is

entering a transition period from one that consists of a winter

storm across the North to heavy rain and severe thunderstorms

across the South.  The low pressure system that has brought snow,

high winds, and severe weather to various locations across the

northern and central U.S. will continue to weaken and track

northeast across the upper Midwest today, and then move into

southern Canada on Tuesday.  Lingering wet snow across the

Northern Plains is expected to taper off later today while locally

moderate rain moves across the Upper Midwest.



Monday morning will feature showers and embedded thunderstorms

across the Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley

and the lower Mississippi Valley well in advance of the low

pressure system and near the trailing cold front.  Meanwhile,

moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to return to the

western Gulf states.  Southern Texas will likely wake up to fair

conditions this morning but will likely followed by a rapid

untimely increase of clouds this morning into the afternoon prior

to the arrival of the solar eclipse.  In contrast, northern New

England remains to be the region where cloud cover will likely be

minimized along the path of totality this afternoon as the

nor'easter moves farther out into the Atlantic.  It appears that

other locations in between will have a fair chance of cloud covers

at various levels, although locations across the Midwest could see

breaks in the clouds or high thin clouds during the time of

totality.  



Monday night into Tuesday will likely see the threat of heavy rain

blossoming across the South from eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma

expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley in response

to a potent upper trough approaching from the southern Rockies

that will interact with the influx of Gulf moisture.  A few inches

of rain will likely be common from northern Louisiana into

southern Arkansas through Wednesday morning with this setup.  In

addition, severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop within

the heavy rain area from Tuesday morning onward into Wednesday

morning when a low pressure system is forecast to develop over

Texas.  The heaviest rains and severe storms should begin to head

farther east by Wednesday morning into the Mid-South as the low

pressure system intensifies and tracks toward the east-northeast.



Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to

bring the next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest

by later today and spread into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. 

Much of the Southwest into the Four Corners will remain dry with

some gusty winds as a dry cold front passes through.  As for fire

weather, it appears that the area of Critical Risk of Fire Weather

will be confined to western Texas per the Storm Prediction center.



Forecast high temperatures will tend to be at or above average and

mild to warm over much of the central/eastern U.S. today ahead of

the system over the Midwest/Plains. The greatest anomalies will be

in the lower Great Lakes vicinity, where temperatures into the 60s

and 70s are upwards of 15-20 degrees above normal. The frontal

boundary sagging southward and increasing coverage of

precipitation chances will bring cooler temperatures from the

Tennessee Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into portions of

the Southern Plains/Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to

warm up by 10-15 degrees over the Northern Plains Tuesday

following one more chilly day on Monday.  An expanding area of

warm, above average temperatures will spread inland from

California into the Great Basin Tuesday as an upper-level ridge

builds in.



Kong/Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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