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FXCA20 KWBC 081807

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

207 PM EDT MON APR 08 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 08 APR 2024 AT 1815 UTC: ON MONDAY...THE

FORECAST REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS

OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN. A CONVERGENT

PHASE OF THE MJO IS SUPPRESSING THE ABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN

THE REGION...EVEN THOUGH AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED

OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A RIDGE OVER THE

CARIBBEAN IS FAVORING A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP OVER MOST OF THE

NORTH CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO REGION...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN

CENTRAL AMERICA ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO

PUERTO RICO/VI...CROSSING INTO HISPANIOLA...AND JUST NORTH OF

JAMAICA...PROVIDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON MONDAY. THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE PUERTO RICO CAN

EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND

NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. INCREASED

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF

15-25MM...IN GUATEMALA...BELIZE...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ON

TUESDAY...THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FRONTAL

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF

15-20MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...AND

MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND

SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WESTERN GUATEMALA..AND CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT

MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT

SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER

THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO REACH VERACRUZ ON

WEDNESDAY...AND WITH IT INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA. THE REGION CAN EXPECT

MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE INCREASED

PRECIPITABLE WATER ENTER THE REGION AND COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-40MM IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AND 15-20MM IN EASTERN

PANAMA. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOSING DEFINITION

AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.



IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...WESTERLY

FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER

CONVERGENT MJO PULSE DEVELOPING OVER THE AMERICAS...IS FAVORING A

DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DYNAMICAL ENHANCEMENT OF

CONVECTION...RESULTING IN DECREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING

CELLS. FURTHERMORE...AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS IS ENTERING THE

REGION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL RESULT IN

CONSERVATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON

MONDAY...AN ACTIVE ITCZ WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA

OF 30-60MM ALONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST COLOMBIA...WHILE IN NORTHWEST

AND NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA

OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND ISOLATED

OCCURRENCE.. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 10-25MM

IN SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST

AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA

OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION.



POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC

TYPE SOF INIT



ACOSTA...WPC (USA)

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