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FXUS21 KWNC 081850

PMDTHR

US Hazards Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EDT April 08 2024



SYNOPSIS: Mid-level troughing predicted over the western half of the contiguous 

U.S. (CONUS) at the 



beginning of the period is anticipated to support the formation of a series of 

surface lows 



over the central CONUS. This pattern combined with enhanced moist flow from the 

Gulf of 



Mexico increases the chances for heavy precipitation for parts of the Central 

and Southern 



Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and possible 

flooding 



across  northeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally these 

storms may 



bring heavy upslope snow to the Northern Rockies and high winds to the central 

CONUS.



HAZARDS



Moderate risk of high winds for portions of the Great Plains and Middle and 

Upper 



Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Apr 16-17.



Slight risk of high winds for portions of the central CONUS, Tue-Thu, Apr 16-18.



Slight risk of periodic heavy precipitation for parts of the Southern Plains 

and Lower 



Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys,  Tue-Fri, Apr 16-19.



Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Northern and Central Rockies, 

Tue-Wed, Apr 16-



17.



Possible flooding for parts of northeastern Texas, extreme southeastern 

Oklahoma, and the 



Lower Mississippi Valley.



DETAILED SUMMARY



FOR THURSDAY APRIL 11 - MONDAY APRIL 15: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



FOR TUESDAY APRIL 16 - MONDAY APRIL 22: There is multi-model depiction of 

mid-level troughing across the western half of the CONUS 



at the beginning of the period, which would be favorable for the formation of a 

series of 



surface lows across the central CONUS. The GEFS and Canadian ensemble means are 

more 



amplified than the ECENS, translating to surface lows that would be stronger 

and more 



favorable for hazardous conditions.







Mid-level troughing across the West combined with surface high pressure 

building across 



the East Coast, is anticipated to promote enhanced moisture flow from the Gulf 

of Mexico 



into parts of the eastern CONUS at the beginning of the period. A slight risk 

of periods 



of heavy precipitation is highlighted across parts of the Southern Plains and 

Lower 



Mississippi, Ohio Valleys, and Tennessee Valleys, Apr 16-19. Thunderstorms are 

possible in 



the designated risk area, which would further enhance precipitation totals 

locally. A 



broad spatial area and period is highlighted due to high uncertainty regarding 

specific 



locations anticipated to receive the heaviest precipitation. The GEFS, ECENS, 

and Canadian 



Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) are in good agreement indicating at least a 

20% chance 



of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile climatologically and one inch. 

A possible 



flood risk area is designated for parts of northeastern Texas, extreme 

southeastern 



Oklahoma, and the Lower Mississippi Valley due to antecedent wet conditions 

anticipated 



during week-1 and expected heavy precipitation during week-2, where there are 

some 



stations already experiencing flood conditions.







Upstream, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Northern and Central 

Rockies, Apr 



16-17, given the potential for storms over the central CONUS supporting heavy 

upslope snow 



across high elevation areas. The GEFS PET shows at least a 20% chance of some 

of these 



areas receiving 3-day snow water equivalent (SWE) totals exceeding the 85th 

percentile and 



half an inch, and the uncalibrated ECENS ensemble indicating totals exceeding 4 

inches in 



much of the highlighted risk area.







The potential for an amplified mid-level pattern supports a broad area 

highlighted with a 



slight risk of high winds across parts of the central CONUS, Apr 16-18. PETs 

show at least 



a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph (ECENS 

shows greater 



than 25 mph across the Central and Southern High Plains) across much of the 

risk area. A 



moderate risk of high winds is designated across  portions of the Great Plains 

and Middle 



and Upper Mississippi Valley, Apr 16-17, primarily based on pattern recognition 

of where 



the greatest likelihood would be based on the large-scale pattern. High winds 

could 



enhance the risk for wildfires across the central CONUS and Four Corners, 

especially where 



little to no precipitation is predicted during weeks 1 and 2. The National 

Interagency 



Fire Center (NIFC) indicates the greatest potential for wildfires for day 7 

across 



southern and eastern portions of the Four Corners and Central and Southern 

Plains.







Across Alaska, the week-2 mean pattern is predicted to be dominated by positive 

500 hPa 



height departures across much of the state. Surface low formation is possible 

over the 



Gulf of Alaska during week-2, although not anticipated to support widespread 

hazards at 



this time.



FORECASTER: Melissa Ou 



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