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FXCA20 KWBC 091240

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

839 AM EDT TUE APR 09 2024



PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 09/12UTC:

A COLD FRONT IS NOT SOUTH OF PR/USVI...AND IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY

DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BOTTOMING OUT ON THURSDAY BUT

INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL

EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF PR/USVI. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS

SUGGESTING OVER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE NEAR 1.5 INCHES COULD BE

OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PR. THE USVI ARE FORECAST

ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN TODAY. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON

WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN DRIER ON THURSDAY...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN

THE FORECAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ON

FRIDAY...THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE

DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE

FORECAST.



ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE

NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT

THAT IS PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...NOW SOUTH OF

THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE

SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS AND HELP BRING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN

STABLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH

THAT COULD DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT THE AXIS WILL BE OVER

THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...CAUSING PR/USVI TO BE IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE

OF THE TROUGH.



THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 2.5 TO 3 INCHES

OVER NORTHEASTER PR. BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS

FORECAST FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD

OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5 AND AN INCH OF RAIN...AND THE USVI ARE

FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES.



ALAMO...WPC (USA)





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