####018003945####
FXUS01 KWBC 091859

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

258 PM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 00Z Wed Apr 10 2024 - 00Z Fri Apr 12 2024



...Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat will

expand into the central Gulf Coast States, Tennessee Valley and

parts of the Southeast on Wednesday, reaching into the Midwest,

Ohio Valley and the East Coast by Thursday...



...Critical fire danger remains over the Texas Big Bend and Rio

Grande Valley through this evening...



A very active weather pattern is currently unfolding throughout

much of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as

numerous showers and thunderstorms impact the region, with several

modes of hazardous weather possible. Ample atmospheric moisture

content, nearby frontal boundaries, and a supportive upper level

environment are expected to continue the threat of severe weather

and flash flooding over the next few days. Through tonight, the

bulk of the impactful weather is forecast to remain across the

southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, where many locations

have already been dealing with soaking rain and intense

thunderstorms over the last 12 hours or so. With more heavy rain

on the way, numerous instances of flash flooding are likely

overnight from east-central Texas to parts of western Mississippi.

A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in

effect, as well as Flood Watches extending from Texas to Alabama.

Additionally, thunderstorms will be capable of producing a few

tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind gusts.



The disruptive weather is anticipated to expand eastward on

Wednesday throughout the central Gulf Coast States, Tennessee

Valley, and Southeast. Multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms

could dump around 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over a relatively

short time period from northeast Louisiana to southwest Georgia

and the Florida Panhandle. This has prompted the Moderate Risk of

Excessive Rainfall to be extended into these regions on Wednesday.

A Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe thunderstorms also exists

on Wednesday from east-central Louisiana to southwest Mississippi,

where the potential exists for several tornadoes (a few of which

could be strong), and widespread damaging wind gusts. Residents

and visitors are advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings

and never drive through flooded roadways.



This storm system is forecast to become better organized by the

latter part of Wednesday and continue on a northeastward

progression over the lower Great Lakes by Thursday night. Showers

and thunderstorms will shift into the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and

Mid-Atlantic, but should become more progressive in nature. The

greatest threat for damaging wind gusts associated with strong

thunderstorms on Thursday extends from the Carolinas to northern

Florida, as well as the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain may also lead to

scattered instances of flash flooding from the southern/central

Appalachians to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Lastly, strong

southerly flow along the East Coast could lead to gusty winds and

coastal hazards from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.



Mostly tranquil weather is forecast elsewhere throughout the

Nation as upper ridging builds over the Intermountain West. Rain

and snow showers are expected to swing from the Northwest to the

northern High Plains tonight as a frontal system quickly moves

east and over the northern Plains on Wednesday. Otherwise, gusty

winds and low relative humidity will continue to create Critical

Fire Weather over the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley into

tonight, with Elevated Fire Weather continuing into Wednesday.



Snell





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$