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FXAK02 KWNH 092049

PMDAK 



Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

448 PM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024



...Synoptic Overview, Guidance Evaluation, & Preferences...

A deep layered cyclone near the North Pole should keep the

Westerlies moving across AK this period.  There will be some

tendency for broad ridging, especially across eastern AK, through

this weekend into early next week.  As the best 500 hPa height

gradient remains over AK, so too should a front which will waver

across the interior between late Friday and late next Tuesday. 

The 12z guidance showed reasonable agreement until early next

week, when the GFS amplified a trough near northeast Asia within a

flow pattern that should support shortwaves of modest amplitude,

at best.  Relied more heavily upon a blend of the remainder of the

guidance, including the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS means, for the

pressures, winds, and fronts.  The QPF was based on a blend of the

19z NBM, 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, and 12z Canadian.  Other grids were

more based on the 19z NBM.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

In southern AK, general troughing should keep the Southern

Coast/Southeast/Panhandle generally unsettled through at least the

weekend. The West may dry out this weekend, but shortwaves

interacting with a front across the interior appear to bring

another round of accumulating snow to parts of northwest Alaska

early next week. Temperatures across the southern half of the

state should stay cool much of the period, trending milder at

times as broad ridging attempts to build. The strongest anomalies

are likely across the Southeast. Northern Alaska should stay

milder than average the entire period, but moderating somewhat

this weekend as additional shortwave energy slides through the

region and increases precipitation/snow chances.



Roth





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface

fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be

found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html



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