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FXHW01 KWNH 270801

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 00Z Sun Apr 28 2024 - 00Z Sun May 05 2024



Upper and surface lows are located to the northwest of Hawaii and

are forecast to track slowly eastward this weekend and early next

week. In response to these features, winds are likely to veer a

bit and may become east-southeast, though staying weak enough to

allow for a hybrid trade and land/sea breeze pattern over the next

few days. Some increased moisture is in place and will likely hold

through Saturday, allowing for increasing shower coverage directed

by the winds. Somewhat drier conditions may come in early next

week. What is left of the weakening trough may move across Hawaii

around Tuesday.



By the later part of next week, it is most likely that surface

high pressure should move north of the state and promote

strengthening easterly trades. Some notable model differences

start to arise late week though. The ECMWF is showing a closed

upper low setting up west of the state drawing significant

moisture into the northwestern islands, unlike other guidance.

This type of pattern seems unlikely as the ECMWF is deeper than

basically all ensemble members from multiple model suites with

this feature. So this will continue to be monitored but prefer a

solution away from the ECMWF at this time.





Tate



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