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FXUS01 KWBC 272030

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 00Z Sun Apr 28 2024 - 00Z Tue Apr 30 2024



...More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected

to push eastward across the southern Plains tonight reaching into

lower Mississippi Valley on Monday...



...Snow over central Colorado gradually tapers off tonight but

high-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific

Northwest into the northern Rockies on Monday...



...Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High

Plains...



...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into

Mid-Atlantic on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift

from the Four Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains...



More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across

the mid-section of the country through the remainder of the

weekend into Monday.  Multiple disturbances embedded within a

slow-moving upper-level trough responsible for the active weather

are currently developing another low pressure system over the

central Plains.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to erupt

in the warm and unstable air ahead of the low pressure system east

of a dry line from northern Texas through central Oklahoma into

eastern Kansas.  A moderate risk of severe weather is forecast

through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center with the

possibility of large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornadoes. 

In addition to the severe weather, intense rainfall rates are

expected to accompany these thunderstorms at times, leading to a

moderate to locally high potential of flash flooding to occur in

these areas through tonight.  By Sunday, the main area of

thunderstorms will push farther eastward toward the mid- and lower

Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat of severe weather.

 Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther southeast into

the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated with the

low pressure system begins to weaken.  The center of the low is

forecast to track northeast across the central Plains on Sunday,

reaching into the upper Midwest on Monday.  Strong to locally

severe thunderstorms can be expected to extend northeast across

these areas including the Midwest ahead of a warm front to the

east of the low pressure center.  Meanwhile, the threat of heavy

rain will push farther southeast into the lower to mid-Mississippi

Valley as the cold front pushes eastward.



Meanwhile, snow on the backside of the low pressure system is

forecast to gradually taper off tonight over central Colorado, and

so will the areas of mixed rain/snow extending into the

Four-Corners as the system moves farther away into the central

Plains.  Meanwhile, another low pressure system will begin to move

away from the Great Lakes into Canada with scattered showers

ending over the upper Great Lakes but continuing from the lower

Great Lakes into New England.  Strong southerly flow behind a high

pressure system will bring very warm air northward into the East

Coast through the next couple of days with high temperatures

climbing well into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for the

interior Mid-Atlantic.  These temperatures will be in contrast to

the cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday

as the next upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to

push inland.  This trough will bring widespread high-elevation

snow and lower elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest toward

the northern Rockies on Monday with increasingly windy conditions

as a low pressure system begins to develop over the northern High

Plains into southern Canada.  Meanwhile, dry and warm winds

sinking down the southern Rockies will continue to keep a critical

fire weather risk over the southern High Plains.



Kong





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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