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FXUS01 KWBC 111920

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

320 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024



Valid 00Z Fri Apr 12 2024 - 00Z Sun Apr 14 2024



...Powerful low pressure system to produce gusty winds, heavy

rain, and the potential for severe thunderstorms across parts of

the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eastern United States through

Friday...



...Lower elevation rain and mountain snow to enter California on

Saturday...



...Well above average temperatures forecast to surge into the

northern/central Plains this weekend...



A large, deepening low pressure system currently over the

Ohio/Tennessee valleys this afternoon will be the driving force

behind active weather throughout the eastern United States until

early this weekend. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is

forecast to continue through tonight across the lower Great Lakes,

Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Rainfall

could be heavy enough at times to create instances of flash

flooding over the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, where a

Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect.

Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible throughout a

similar region and could contain a few tornadoes, scattered

damaging winds, and isolated severe hail. This severe threat also

includes the central Florida Peninsula into this evening, but

thunderstorm activity should drastically diminish across the

eastern U.S. by Friday. Heavy rain will continue to be a hazard on

Friday throughout northern New England due to the combination of

rainfall and recent snowmelt. Flood Watches remain in effect

between northern New Hampshire and central Maine as antecedent

conditions support the threat of flash and river flooding. Wind

will be another aspect of this storm worth monitoring as the large

low pressure system develops a strong pressure gradient. The East

Coast can expect strong southerly flow ahead of the system through

early Friday and the potential for coastal flood hazards.

Meanwhile, on the backside of the system gusty northwesterly winds

are expected to impact the Great Lakes and Appalachians on Friday

and Saturday.



Unsettled weather will enter California on Saturday as low

pressure churns just off the coast and an associated frontal

boundary pushes inland. Locally heavy rain is possible along

coastal regions, with moderate to heavy snow in the high terrain

of the Sierra Nevada. Rainfall is also expected to expand

northward into parts of southern Oregon, but is anticipated to be

mostly beneficial.



After a cooler Thursday throughout the Great Plains underneath

high pressure, much warmer weather is on the way by Saturday.

Highs are expected to surge upwards of 20 to 30 degrees above

average through the north-central United States. This equates to

widespread highs into the 70s and 80s from the Great Plains and

Upper Midwest to the northern Great Basin.



Snell





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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