####018002130####
FXCA20 KWBC 121211

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

810 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2024



PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 12/12UTC:

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PR AND THE USVI WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF

SHOWERS EACH DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY

AND TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. 



ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE

CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO

THE EAST NORTHEAST.  ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE

SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND

INTO MONDAY. THESE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE NE TO ENE

WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID

AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH

THE WEEKEND...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS

ALSO SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN

CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASE

IN MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGHS TO OUR WEST...AND THE

POSSIBLE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...COULD COMBINE

TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER PR/USVI ON

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE EGDI ALGORITHM CONTINUES TO

SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER

NORTHEASTERN PR. BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR

PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR. ELSEWHERE IN

MAINLAND PR...0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND THE USVI ARE

FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND ONE 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN.



ALAMO...WPC (USA)





$$