####018001864#### FXUS23 KWNC 121924 PMDSST Tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperature/SST/ outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2024 Mean temperature anomaly SST outlooks are in tenth of a degree Celsius for the Nino 3.4 area of the tropical Pacific /5N-5S 120W-170W/. Anomalies are from 1991-2020 Nino 3.4 climatology SST /CLIM/. Three month outlook periods eg. JFM is January through March - FMA for FEB. through APR. See notes below on types of outlooks TYPE MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ CONS -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 U68 0.1 -0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 L68 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 U95 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 L95 -0.8 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 -2.7 -2.9 -2.5 -2.3 -2.0 -1.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 CCA -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 CA -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 CFS -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -2.2 CLM 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.7 CONS - Official consolidated outlook U68 - The upper limit of the 68 percent confidence interval forecast L68 - The lower limit of the 68 percent confidence interval forecast U95 - The upper limit of the 95 percent confidence interval forecast L95 - THE lower limit of the 95 percent confidence interval forecast CCA - Canonical correlation analysis outlook CA - Constructed analog outlook CFS - NCEP CFS version 2 dynamic model outlook CLM - Climatological mean Nino 3.4 SST This product is available in a graphical format on the internet http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ ####018012821#### FXUS06 KWBC 121924 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri April 12 2024 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 22 2024 Model agreement has been degrading over the last few days as a predicted amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern is depicted breaking down across North America and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECENS, and Canadian models due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend features positive 500-hPa height anomalies but chaotic flow over Alaska and amplifying ridging over the West Coast. An anomalous mid-level trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are centered over eastern Canada, while positive anomalies are predicted over the southeastern Contiguous U.S (CONUS). Mid-level ridging forecast across the West and troughing over the Great Lakes brings elevated chances for below-normal temperatures across much of the north-central CONUS. The strongest chances of below-normal temperatures are forecast parts for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with probabilities exceeding 50%. Above-normal temperatures are favored over much of the West Coast, as well as portions of the Southeast U.S., consistent with ensemble forecasts and reforecast tools. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures are favored for most of the Mainland while near-normal temperatures are most likely for portions of the Alaska Peninsula extending to the eastern interior Mainland and above-normal temperatures favored for the Panhandle, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. For Hawaii (except for the Big Island), odds tilt towards below-normal temperatures, consistent with the Hawaii consolidation (CON) and today’s autoblend. Near-normal temperatures are favored for the Big Island. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the western third of the CONUS as well as the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The highest probabilities exceed 50% along coastal locations of northern California and southern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation is favored across the southern CONUS east of the Rockies due to a moist Gulf return flow predicted over the Southern Plains, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF precipitation reforecast consolidation tools. Odds also tilt towards above-normal precipitation for portions of northern New England, under the influence of an exiting mid-level trough. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Mainland with below-normal precipitation favored in parts of the central Aleutians. In Hawaii, odds tilt slightly towards below-normal precipitation, consistent with the Hawaii CON. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, with moderate agreement among forecast models and tools, offset by large changes in model solutions relative to yesterday and a synoptic regime change favored during the forecast period. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 26 2024 Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day (week-2) period predict a de-amplification of the 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. Height anomalies are much weaker relative to the 6-10 day period as the synoptic pattern becomes more zonal and spread among model solutions increases. During week-2, strong positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast to be centered over the Kamchatka Peninsula of eastern Russia with positive anomalies extending across the Bering Sea. Weak negative anomalies are forecast over northeastern Alaska and the Chukchi Sea. Weak ridging with positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored over the northern and northwestern CONUS, and a weak trough is depicted over the Canadian Maritimes leading to below-normal mid-level heights over portions of the Northeast. Above-normal temperatures are favored over much of the western CONUS due the forecast ridging and above-normal 500-hPa heights over western North America. Above-normal temperature chances exceeding 50% are indicated for portions of the Great Basin, and odds tilt towards above-normal temperatures for Florida, as indicated by the majority of forecast guidance. Below-normal temperatures are favored for portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and particularly the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys (>50% probability centered over the Ohio Valley) supported by most dynamic temperature forecast tools. Below-normal temperatures are also favored for the Southern Plains and Lower MIssissippi Valley where enhanced precipitation may limit daytime heating. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures remain favored across most of the state, consistent with the GEFS calibrated reforecast tool, while near-normal temperatures are most likely for the Panhandle. In Hawaii, near-normal temperatures are favored for most of the state, while Oahu and Kauai lean towards below-normal temperatures. The week-2 precipitation forecast is fairly progressive, relative to the 6-10 day forecast, with chances for below-normal precipitation shifting from the Northern Plains to the northeastern CONUS, while a developing return flow pattern brings chances for above-normal precipitation to the Gulf Coast, Southern and Central Plains and portions of the Four Corners region. Below-normal precipitation remains favored for the northwestern CONUS with ridging depicted over the West Coast. Probabilities are lower overall than yesterday’s outlooks, reflecting the increased uncertainty in today’s forecast. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation remains favored across much of the state, while near-normal precipitation is most likely for the parts of the central and western Aleutians and the Panhandle. In Hawaii below-normal precipitation is once again slightly favored, consistent with the Hawaii CON. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, with moderate agreement among forecast models and tools, offset by a fairly progressive pattern and weak anomalies in ensemble forecasts. FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on April 18. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20080411 - 19770418 - 19640426 - 19550412 - 19990405 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20080410 - 19770419 - 19640425 - 19550412 - 19610418 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 18 - 22 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Apr 20 - 26 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$