####018005107#### FSUS46 KLOX 131128 QPSLOX Quantitative Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 307 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025 Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400. Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only. Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an inch are shown as lgt. The discussion covers the period from: Thu Feb 13 2025 through Wed Feb 19 2025. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 San Luis Obispo County... LSRC1:Cambria 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 | 0.1 lgt SMRC1:Santa Margarita 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 | 0.1 lgt NIPC1:Lopez Lake 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.3 | 0.2 0.2 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.25-0.55 0.35-0.75 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 60% 100% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% 30% Peak rates expected to occur between: 0900-1400 Chance of Thunderstorms: 40% Isolated rates around 1.5 in/hr possible near thunderstorms. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Santa Barbara County... SIYC1:Santa Maria lgt 0.2 0.7 0.2 | lgt lgt SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 | 0.2 0.2 GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.9 | 0.5 0.3 SMCC1:San Marcos Pass 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.9 | 0.4 0.2 SBFC1:Santa Barbara City 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 | 0.3 0.1 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.45-0.65 0.65-0.95 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 85% 100% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 25% 45% Peak rates expected to occur between: 1100-1400 Chance of Thunderstorms: 40% Isolated rates around 2.0 in/hr possible near thunderstorms. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Ventura County... FGWC1:Fagan Canyon 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 | 0.8 0.1 HRCC1:Hopper Canyon 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 | 1.0 0.2 MTDC1:Matilija Dam 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.9 | 0.7 0.2 VTUC1:Ventura City 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 | 0.6 lgt MORC1:Moorpark 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 | 0.7 0.1 CRXC1:Circle X Ranch 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.6 | 0.9 0.1 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.25-0.55 0.65-0.95 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 55% 100% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 10% 40% Peak rates expected to occur between: 0900-1700 Chance of Thunderstorms: 40% Isolated rates around 2.0 in/hr possible near thunderstorms. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Los Angeles County... WFKC1:West Fork Heliport 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.2 | 2.2 0.3 BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.7 | 1.8 0.4 PCDC1:Pacoima Dam 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 | 1.2 0.2 FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 | 1.3 0.2 SAUC1:Saugus lgt 0.2 0.2 0.5 | 0.7 lgt CQT:Downtown LA 0.1 0.3 lgt 0.2 | 0.9 lgt MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 | 1.0 lgt 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.25-0.55 0.45-0.85 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 55% 100% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% 40% Peak rates expected to occur between: 1400-2000 Chance of Thunderstorms: 40% Isolated rates around 1.75 in/hr possible near thunderstorms. && DISCUSSION: A strong storm with an entrained weak atmospheric river will bring moderate to heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to the area today. A Flash Flood Watch for ALL recent burn scars is in effect today. The greatest concern for major debris flows exists in and near the Eaton, Palisades/Franklin, and Bridge burn scars. At least minor flood impacts are likely beyond these areas with roadway and urban flooding possible. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches will be common at lower elevations and 3 to 6 inches across the mountains and foothills with almost twice these totals for portions of San Luis Obispo county (3 to 5 inches coasts and 6 to 10 inches Santa Lucia mountains). Snow levels will be at or above 8000 feet for most of the event, dropping briefly to around 6000 feet Friday with minimal additional accumulations. $$ Rorke