####018005008#### FSUS46 KLOX 091211 QPSLOX Quantitative Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 349 AM PST Sun Feb 09 2025 Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour increments until 1600 followed by 6-hour increments until 0400. Thunderstorm chances cover up to 0400 on day 1 only. Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an inch are shown as lgt. The discussion covers the period from: Sun Feb 09 2025 through Sat Feb 15 2025. && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 San Luis Obispo County... LSRC1:Cambria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SMRC1:Santa Margarita 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 NIPC1:Lopez Lake 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.00 0.00 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0% 0% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0% 0% Peak rates expected to occur between: N/A Chance of Thunderstorms: 0% && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Santa Barbara County... SIYC1:Santa Maria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SMCC1:San Marcos Pass 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SBFC1:Santa Barbara City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.00 0.00 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0% 0% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0% 0% Peak rates expected to occur between: N/A Chance of Thunderstorms: 0% && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Ventura County... FGWC1:Fagan Canyon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 HRCC1:Hopper Canyon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MTDC1:Matilija Dam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 VTUC1:Ventura City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MORC1:Moorpark 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 CRXC1:Circle X Ranch 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.00 0.00 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0% 0% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0% 0% Peak rates expected to occur between: N/A Chance of Thunderstorms: 0% && 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 Los Angeles County... WFKC1:West Fork Heliport 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 PCDC1:Pacoima Dam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SAUC1:Saugus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 CQT:Downtown LA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.00 0.00 Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 0% 0% Probability 1.00+ in/hr: 0% 0% Peak rates expected to occur between: N/A Chance of Thunderstorms: 0% && DISCUSSION: What looks to be at least a moderate winter storm will affect the area later this week. There is a chance that rain will arrive Wednesday but it will more likely arrive across SLO/SBA counties Wednesday night and VTA/LA counties early Thursday. Steady rain is then forecast everywhere through Thursday night. The cold front assoc with this storm will make its way through the area Thursday night. Right now the most likely rainfall forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of rain with 2 to 4 inches across the coastal foothills. The lesser amount scenario is looking less likely with a now greater possibility of more rainfall (up to double the most likely amounts). The highest rainfall rates will occur with the frontal passage Thursday night and this will be the time of greatest concern for debris flows in and around the recent burn areas. Snow levels will likely start out near 7000 ft and then lower to 6000 ft before lowering to near 5000 ft in the wake of the front. Elevations above 7,000 or 8,000 feet may see several ft of snow. $$ Rorke