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ACUS02 KWNS 081740

SWODY2

SPC AC 081738



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL

TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday

morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River

Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong,

significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely.



...Synopsis...

An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and

adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period,

flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states.  The

low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West

Texas through the second half of the period.  Several lead

disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system

will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period.



At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from

central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border

vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined

trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day,

and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central

and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours.



...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley...

A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the

period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the

advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region.

 With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a

plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will

combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread

deep convection across the region.  



Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be

ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at

the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe

potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains

quite difficult/uncertain at this time.  



One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across

portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east

outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally

severe storms.  Near and south of this boundary, favorably

strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the

broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential

heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of

concentrated severe risk.  Large hail and damaging winds will be

possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong

tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on

the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection.



Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during

the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary

intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX

vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande.  Weaker low-level

shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow

aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should

yield a threat for significant severe hail.  Storms will spread

eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk

spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana

through the evening and overnight. 



Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX,

early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before

additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the

mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by

this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold

pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue

into the evening hours.



..Goss.. 04/08/2024



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