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ACUS01 KWNS 090052

SWODY1

SPC AC 090050



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 090100Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight

across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower

Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though

a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible.



...01z Update...



Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low

settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is

forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb

speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern

Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in

response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm

advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period.



Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is

reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX

South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information).

Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting

north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment.

Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity

across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors

supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or

more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be

the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and

perhaps a few tornadoes are possible.



Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this

region continues.



..Darrow.. 04/09/2024



$$