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ACUS02 KWNS 091732

SWODY2

SPC AC 091731



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday

morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential

will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong

(EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be

particularly damaging.



...Synopsis...

An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the

day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of

the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the

lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70

kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday

morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt

southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70,

aiding both shear and moisture advection.



At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine

Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the

evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN

by 12Z Thursday.



During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend

northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS.

Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front

early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles

downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress

east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary

tornado threat possible.



...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle...

Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of

LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich

low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000

J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and

deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging

bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH

gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado

risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any

existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging

winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly

on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries.

Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also

support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection

precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries.



...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight...

Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight,

from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps

southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and

tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible

antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization.

Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will

develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells

and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible

given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2.



..Jewell.. 04/09/2024



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