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ACUS01 KWNS 102006

SWODY1

SPC AC 102004



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0304 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 102000Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA

AND GEORIGA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms will continue along portions of the northern and

northeastern Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, and perhaps

overnight as well. The potential will exist for a few tornadoes and

damaging winds.



...Northern/Northeast Gulf Coastal States...

A long-lived MCS continues to move rapidly east across the western

Florida Panhandle, likely producing strong or damaging gusts. The

primary portion of land is moving quickly east but into a

less-unstable air mass currently. 



With time, additional destabilization is anticipated across the

remainder of the FL Panhandle, and perhaps into southern GA. Strong

low-level shear will remain present, and will conditionally favor

supercell tornado threat. However, current trends with the large

ongoing MCS as well as trailing outflow well offshore suggest a

somewhat decreased probability of lone supercells through tonight.

Still, embedded areas of circulations may develop later within the

ongoing line, especially if trailing outflow decelerates and/or

deteriorates later tonight.



...Sabine Valley northeastward into TN/KY...

Substantial air mass stabilization has occurred over the region,

with only small areas of weak instability near the Sabine Valley.

Surface observations show intense 30-40 kt easterly outflow across

much of MS, with MCS material spreading north across AL and into TN.

As such, low probabilities have been removed for many of these areas

due to the negating effects of the large Gulf Coast MCS.



..Jewell.. 04/10/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/



...Middle Gulf Coast to Southeast/Tennessee Valley...

At late morning, a prominent bowing segment with history of

severe/damaging wind gusts continues near the southeast

Mississippi/southwest Alabama state line vicinity, with strong

convection preceding it (up to 75 miles to its east). The northern

half of this convection continues to outpace the influx of richer

low-level moisture, with the preceding cloud canopy also somewhat

limiting insolation/heating in areas to the north of the immediate

coast.



A predominant linear/potentially somewhat mixed convective mode is

likely to persist regionally into this evening, with general

east-northeastward sustenance of the intense bowing convective line

and the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells materializing

ahead of it, particularly on its southern/southeast flank.

Potentially widespread damaging winds remain a viable possibility,

along with tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+) coincident

with very strong low-level shear (500+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per regional

WSR-88D data such as MOB). The damaging wind/tornado risks are

expected to persist into tonight particularly across the Florida

Panhandle and southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia, as the low-level

jet nocturnally restrengthens and convection continues to focus/move

inland along/south of the effective boundary as reinforced by this

morning's/afternoon's MCS.



Farther northwest, some strong/locally severe lower-topped storms

could occur this afternoon into evening in a steeper mid-level lapse

rate regime near the synoptic low and nearby frontal zone from the

ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee Valley.



$$