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ACUS02 KWNS 110550

SWODY2

SPC AC 110549



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST

OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across

parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late

afternoon to early evening Friday.



...Northwest Great Basin...

An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the

central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase

will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest

moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther

east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to

scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak

heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager

buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge

that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized

severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail

may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell

structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk.



...East...

Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z

Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues

northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across

parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection

during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph

curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and

weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be

very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears

too low to warrant an areal delineation.



As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the

basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold

mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped

convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central

OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy

should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles.

Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface

and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon.



..Grams.. 04/11/2024



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