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ACUS03 KWNS 110711

SWODY3

SPC AC 110710



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.



...Great Lakes...

Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become

more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface

anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will

occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night,

low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated,

highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes

vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be

present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant

buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably

curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning

Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to

northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This

area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven

level 1-MRGL risk.



...West...

The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will

dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and

intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it

flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the

south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker

across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in

highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated

thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with

additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the

northern Rockies.



..Grams.. 04/11/2024



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