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ACUS01 KWNS 111637

SWODY1

SPC AC 111636



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024



Valid 111630Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS

WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,

and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River

Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight.

Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible

this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.



...Upper Ohio River Valley...

Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the

magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent

cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a

broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a

northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While

there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations,

will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km

southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface

cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the

currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively

highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio

River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity.



Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can

regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and

semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are

possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in

addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps

isolated marginally severe hail.



...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas...

A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across

the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with

low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this

afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest

destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would

conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts.

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a

threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible,

particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower

probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east

over the coastal plain/Delmarva.



...Florida...

A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this

afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead

of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints

around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak

mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is

supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles

will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and

locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks

through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization

expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early

evening.



..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024



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