####018001649####
ACUS02 KWNS 111704

SWODY2

SPC AC 111702



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA...



...SUMMARY...

A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over

northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late

afternoon to early evening Friday.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough

gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,

resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a

deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt

of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID.



At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near

the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds.

Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain

cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such,

heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest

flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV

into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z. 



Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE

along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective

shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few

cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing

severe criteria.



..Jewell.. 04/11/2024



$$