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ACUS03 KWNS 120730

SWODY3

SPC AC 120728



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0228 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PA TO EAST

IN...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, mainly from

late afternoon into the evening, across Pennsylvania to eastern

Indiana.



...PA to eastern IN...

A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse

should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New

England by Sunday evening. To its south-southwest, a pronounced

elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes

will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States.

This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection

until peak heating along a southeast-sagging cold front. 00Z NAM

soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as

modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great

Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft spreads in from

the west-northwest. 



MLCAPE should eventually reach 500-1000 J/kg over IN/OH, with

progressively weaker values over PA. Hodographs across the region

should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, with little

speed or directional shear component above that within the buoyancy

layer. Seemingly, a west/east-oriented cluster along the front

should develop by late afternoon to early evening and move south

with the undercutting front, while embedded cells attempt to

parallel the deep-layer west-northwesterly flow regime. This setup

appears to favor low probabilities across each of the hazards into

Sunday evening. The western extent of the threat into IN will likely

be modulated by progressively greater MLCIN that may not be

eliminated prior to frontal passage.



..Grams.. 04/12/2024



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