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ACUS01 KWNS 121250

SWODY1

SPC AC 121248



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0748 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024



Valid 121300Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

NORTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND FAR WESTERN

MONTANA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms

over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana

late this afternoon and early evening.



...Northern Nevada into Eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Far Western

Montana...

An upper low over the eastern Pacific will dig southward towards the

northern/central CA Coast through tonight, with a belt of moderately

enhanced flow extending over parts of the Northwest. Low-level

moisture across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies

is expected to remain quite meager, with PW values generally around

0.7 inch or less. Even so, daytime heating should encourage a very

well-mixed boundary layer to develop by later this afternoon as a

surface low consolidates over northern NV. Isolated to scattered

thunderstorms should develop this afternoon from parts of northern

NV and eastern OR into ID and eventually western MT. With up to 500

J/kg of MLCAPE present amid sufficient deep-layer for some updraft

organization, some of this activity could become strong to severe.

Isolated severe wind gusts may occur with any convective downdrafts,

as low/mid-level lapse rates will likely be quite steep. Occasional

hail also appears possible with the more robust cores. Convection

should weaken this evening with eastward extent into ID/western MT

with the loss of daytime heating.



...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

Low-topped thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this

morning into the afternoon across parts of the Northeast. Poor lapse

rates, weak buoyancy, and generally meridional flow at low/mid

levels across eastern NY into parts of southern New England will

likely hinder an organized severe threat from developing.



A separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across

parts of the OH Valley into the central Appalachians and perhaps

Carolinas. This activity will be tied to cold mid-level temperatures

associated with a shortwave trough embedded within a broad upper

trough/low over the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly

flow behind a front, instability should remain very weak. Still,

enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface with a well-mixed

boundary layer, and occasional strong/gusty winds could occur this

afternoon.



..Gleason/Grams.. 04/12/2024



$$