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ACUS03 KWNS 140733

SWODY3

SPC AC 140732



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA

AND NORTHERN MO...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday

night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to

the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe

hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern

Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening.



...Synopsis...

A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central

KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually

progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to

weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level

jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark

Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it

shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially

north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone

will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its

trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex.



...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys...

Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a

synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening

supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected

west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as

more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of

heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a

plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave

trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist

sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This

coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile

with height should support supercells capable of producing

significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far

east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be

modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can

occur. 



...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South...

Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of

boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a

broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much

of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that

low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from

early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm

development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a

SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant

higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale

convective details become more clear.



..Grams.. 04/14/2024



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