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ACUS02 KWNS 141744

SWODY2

SPC AC 141742



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN

NORTH TEXAS...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS

SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to

central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very

large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are

possible.



...Synopsis...

An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is

forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central

Plains region through the period.  As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis

will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and

drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level

moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for

severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout

elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become

common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by

evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the

central Plains.



...Central/southern Plains...

Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected

as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of

capping in place across much of the warm sector.  Fairly widespread

development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and

arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the

Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with

northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably

strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating

storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind

gusts.  Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail

appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and

portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm

front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. 

Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with

a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible

with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. 



A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX

along the dryline within the deeply mixed air.  Stout capping should

limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become

supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely.  Mid-level

height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday

night, which should result in greater convective development

overnight.  Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with

this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of

tornadoes.  Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage

will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in

later forecasts.



...VA/NC...

A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. 

Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just

south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed

layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to

scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late

afternoon.  Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on

the southern fringe of the stronger  mid-level jet to the north. 

Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few

multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail

initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread

southeast before weakening later in the evening.



..Goss.. 04/14/2024



$$