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ACUS03 KWNS 150725

SWODY3

SPC AC 150724



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE

LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon

to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley

into the Mid-South.



...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South...

Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday

morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite

weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer

shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe

of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should

spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level

warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z

Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting

the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential

for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate

MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests

early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold

front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of

all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and

multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected

near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume

should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch

off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields

into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk.



..Grams.. 04/15/2024



$$