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ACUS02 KWNS 230551

SWODY2

SPC AC 230550



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of

Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the

primary hazards.



...Synopsis...

An upper-level trough initially off of the southern CA/Baja coast is

forecast to move inland on Wednesday, reaching the Southwest by

Thursday morning. A nearly stationary front is forecast to be draped

from west/north TX into parts of the lower MS Valley, with weak

surface troughing expected over the central/southern Plains. Across

the east, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through parts of

the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, as an attendant

cold front sweeps through New England. Low-topped convection with

locally gusty winds could accompany the front during the afternoon. 



...Parts of the southern Great Plains...

An uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained from parts of west TX

into OK, with some adjustments made based on latest guidance. 



Elevated convection may develop or be ongoing across parts of OK

Wednesday morning, within a zone of low-level warm advection along

the northeastern fringe of moderate elevated buoyancy. Any such

convection will tend to move southeastward through the day, north of

stationary front. Steep midlevel lapse rates and marginally

supportive effective shear (for convection likely based between

800-700 mb) could support an isolated hail/wind risk with any

stronger semi-discrete storms. 



Farther west, generally weak forcing will likely tend to limit

coverage of diurnal surface-based storms. However, rather strong

heating and diminishing MLCINH could support isolated development

across areas of west/northwest TX near the stationary front, and

southward along a weakly convergent surface trough/dryline. Moderate

to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will

result in a conditionally favorable environment, and an isolated

supercell or two could evolve if storms can mature, with a threat

for hail and localized severe gusts. 



Finally, another round of elevated convection may develop from

northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as

deeper moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching

upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective

shear could support an isolated hail threat within this regime. 



...Southeast OK toward the ArkLaMiss region...

Modest buoyancy may develop near/south of the nearly stationary

front from southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss Wednesday afternoon.

Elevated convection could spread southeastward north of the boundary

through the day within a weak northwesterly flow regime, while

isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the

boundary. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity and coverage

of convection across this region, but a strong storm or two cannot

be ruled out into early evening.



..Dean.. 04/23/2024



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