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ACUS02 KWNS 160547

SWODY2

SPC AC 160545



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER

MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO

RIVER...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and

evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley.



...Synopsis...

On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend

from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast

toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper

trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern

Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by

12Z Thursday over MN.



At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward

Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an

occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north

as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the

Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the

Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a

secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front

will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching

northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday.



...Ohio Valley to Lower MI...

The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating

will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel

westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial

warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will

likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily

with little hail potential. 



A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours,

with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI

across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may

favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700

mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of

storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be

more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or

two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes

uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake

of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist

along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River.



...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late...

As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable

air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge

will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the

front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast.

While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN,

allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail.

Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear,

low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may

shift in subsequent outlooks.



..Jewell.. 04/16/2024



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