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ACUS03 KWNS 170731

SWODY3

SPC AC 170730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024



Valid 191200Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH

CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday

over parts of the Southeast.



...Synopsis...

A large but low-amplitude upper trough will exist from the northern

Rockies east across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley, and Great

Lakes, with an upper low deepening over Ontario. Moderate midlevel

westerlies will exist across much of the Plains into the OH Valley,

with much weaker winds aloft from TX into the Southeast. Meanwhile,

a weaker wave is expected to move across parts of the Southwest

early on Saturday.



At the surface, high pressure will be prominent across the central

and northern Plains as well as the MS and OH Valleys, with a cold

front roughly stretching from central TX to the Appalachians. A

moist air mass will exist south of this front, from TX eastward

across the Gulf Coast states. Given a strong area of high pressure

to the north, this front should continue to progress generally

southward through the period.



...The Frontal Zone from TX to the Carolinas...

Scattered thunderstorms may linger from OH into eastern TN Friday

morning near the front, with generally weak instability at that time

and no severe threat expected. Other storms will form as heating

occurs and the front interacts with moisture over the Carolinas.

Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears reasonable, beneath modest

west/northwest flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed

boundary layer conducive for strong gusts while hodographs appear

sufficiently long for cellular storm mode, and thus marginal hail

risk. This threat should extend westward across parts of GA and AL

near the front as well for daytime isolated severe wind or hail.



Farther west, a large area of elevated instability will exist over

the southern Plains, well north of the surface front from eastern TX

to the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overall lift is expected to be weak

in this region, with lesser heating potential and weak shear. The

greatest chance of general thunderstorms here may be overnight near

the 850 mb boundary from southwest TX to the Red River. Small hail

cannot be ruled out given ample elevated CAPE.



..Jewell.. 04/17/2024



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