####018001884####
ACUS03 KWNS 180646

SWODY3

SPC AC 180645



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong

storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over

parts of Texas.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the

Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson

Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will

remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East

Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern

Plains, providing cooling aloft.



At the surface,  a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC,

with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day.

This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of

Mexico by Sunday morning.  A moist air mass will remain ahead of the

front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains,

and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast.



The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC

coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week

shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few

strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has

not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating.



Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will

exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout

the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail,

however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread

precipitation.



..Jewell.. 04/18/2024



$$