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ACUS01 KWNS 190051

SWODY1

SPC AC 190049



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024



Valid 190100Z - 191200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of

the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More

isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into

south-central Texas.



...01z Update...



Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across

IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise.

Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage

ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across

the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening.

This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail

reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will

continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH

Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy.



Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest

across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX.

Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind

shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south

through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may

yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken.

Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due

in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling

should limit coverage across this region.



..Darrow.. 04/19/2024



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